Random Win % - Part 6: Benefits of the RW% Approach

This is the sixth of a series of posts about the next evolution in valuing players for fantasy football. Just as value based drafting (VBD) corrected many of the errors in drafting by pure points scored, Random Win % (RW%) corrects many areas which VBD does not address easily. The end result - better drafts, more wins, and more championships!

In part 5, we detailed how to calculate RW%. Hopefully, some benefits to this approach are clear, but just in case let's look at what this can do for us compared to VBD:

1. RW% gives us a scaled number that translates to something important - winning games. VBD does not do this. If I tell you that a player has a VBD of 70 and nothing else, you have no idea if that is good or bad. If a player has an RW% of 70% and nothing else, you know that this player is much better than average.
2. RW% allows us to combine multiple weeks of projections intelligently. If Player A has a VBD of 25 in week 1 and 0 in week 2, is he better than Player B who has a VBD of 10 in both weeks? If so, how much? There's no easy way to tell. If Player A has an RW% of 60% in week 1 and 40% in week 2, it's easy to tell that he is 2% more valuable than Player B who has an RW% of 48% in both weeks.
3. RW% can help us to compare the impact of rule changes! Is your league adding a flex position, going to PPR, or expanding by 2 teams? Comparing the before and after RW% scores for each player will allow you to see opportunities to capitalize on the changes while your opponents flail away.
4. RW% provides commissioners a way to evaluate the balance of a league. Does the top RB give a team a 5% edge compared to the top WR or QB, or are QBs way out of whack? An RW% evaluation can help create more balanced leagues without having to wait through multiple seasons to see the effects of rule changes.
5. RW% allows us to fairly compare the effectiveness of different projections. We all know that some projection sets tend to skew high, but it's difficult to tell how much better one set of projections is versus another in different scoring systems, league sizes, etc. RW% allows us to put the projections and actual results on a level playing field. We can then use relatively simple tools like correlations to see who's better - and by how much.
6. Most importantly, RW% maximizes our ability to use our projections to draft a team that can win it all. In my next post, I will review how we can use some VBD concepts to help us rule the draft with RW%!