Random Win % - Introduction

This is the first of a series of posts about the next evolution in valuing players for fantasy football. Just as value based drafting (VBD) corrected many of the errors in drafting by pure points scored, Random Win % (RW%) corrects many areas which VBD does not address easily. The end result - better drafts, more wins, and more championships!

As the old saying goes, I'm not here to bury VBD, but to praise it. The core principle of VBD  is that it's not points scored that is essential, but points scored compared to peers. That's as true as it was in 1996. But VBD does have gaps that we would like to fix.

• VBD is usually done on a total points basis, but nearly all FF is played head-to-head
• VBD does not help us understand how likely we are to win games based on projections
• VBD does not distinguish between consistency and inconsistency

Random Win % addresses these gaps. In my next post, we will start to dive in to the ideas that led to RW%.