This is the second of a series of posts about the next evolution in valuing players for fantasy football. Just as value based drafting (VBD) corrected many of the errors in drafting by pure points scored, Random Win % (RW%) corrects many areas which VBD does not address easily. The end result - better drafts, more wins, and more championships!
Virtually all fantasy football projections today are done for the full season. Nearly all leagues consist of weekly head-to-head games. Clearly, we have a gap here! While it is debatable how much this impacts the quality of projections, this clearly affects how we value past performance.
To address this, RW% uses weekly stats as its fundamental building block. While it may not seem that big of a deal at first, it will become more important as we dive deeper into the approach. In part 3, we will talk about why the approach is called "random win %" and why it is critical to improving our understanding of fantasy football.
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