This is the fourth of a series of posts about the next evolution in valuing players for fantasy football. Just as value based drafting (VBD) corrected many of the errors in drafting by pure points scored, Random Win % (RW%) corrects many areas which VBD does not address easily. The end result - better drafts, more wins, and more championships!
In part 3, I outlined how poker hands are evaluated in Texas Hold Em. We can use a similar approach to evaluate fantasy football performances. Consider a matchup between two teams, Team 1 and Team 2. Both teams score 100 with their current lineups. Team 1's quarterback X scored 20 points and the rest of the team scored 80 points. If we replace quarterback X with QB Y that scores 30 points, Team 1 would win. If they had started QB Z that scored 10 points, Team 1 would lose. Depending on how the rest of the team performs and the opponent, Team 1 might not have even needed to start a QB to win. Or, it might take a QB scoring 150 points to win the game!
Let's take this a little further. Suppose we looked at a million fantasy football games. For each game, we determine how many points a QB would need to score for Team 1 to win. If QB X scored more points than that, we credit him with a win. We could then compute the % of games that QB X makes Team 1 a winner. Call this QB X's Random Win %. We can compute this for any other QB, or any other position for that matter.
So what have we accomplished? We now have a measure that gives every player, regardless of position, a single value directly tied to the most important part of fantasy football - how much this player help you win games! In my next post, I will dive deeper into this measure and detail how exactly to calculate RW%.
No comments:
Post a Comment